What Not to Do

All’s Well that Ends Well.  Why do I repeat that so often?  To remind myself not to think of the pain and suffering caused by my own foolish behavior.  And besides, that’s the ONLY good thing I can take out of the last two days.

A Honfleur Pistachio Ice Cream Cone
A Honfleur Pistachio Ice Cream Cone My High Point of the Last Few Days

During the past few days, I broke about every rule I had vowed never to break:

  • Don’t enter a strange harbor at night
  • Don’t back up the boat to dock
  • Don’t enter strange marina at night
  • Don’t set out on a cruise with winds in your face from the get go
  • Don’t travel with current and strong winds in the opposite direction.
  • Repair little leaks before they get to be big ones
  • Move the fuel tank vents
  • Don’t let one problem lead to others
  • Do preventive maintenance things the day BEFORE departure
  • Run the fuel polisher while in port
  • Don’t delay in changing fuel filters as needed
  • Always do a visual check that all lines are clear when leaving dock
  • Don’t get a case of “get home-itis”
  • And if any of the above develop, pull into a port in the daytime and wait it out.

I did none of that.

Let’s rewind the tape and see why that happened.

Larry and Karla were leaving Dauntless for the gay lights of Paris and by coincidence; they were being replaced by someone from Paris, Pierre-Jean who had contacted me a few months ago, as he is really interested in Kadey Krogens.

Our goal was Vlissingen, in the southwest corner of Holland, about 190 nautical miles (210 sm, 350 km), 30 hours at just above 6 knots.

I had been looking at the weather for days, http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-2.69,50.52,3000

This surface wind chart at earth.nullschool.net is pretty much the only thing I look at.  It goes out 4 days and by clicking on any specific point, it provides the wind direction and speed for that point.

Now, listen carefully, when you go to your favorite weather site to get a specific forecast, with all pretty colors and forecasts every minute, all you are getting is the same information in a format that has been made to look attractive.  The danger is that those more specific forecasts give the impression of significance that does NOT exist.  OK moving on.

Sunday looked to be a good weather day, light winds, but the forecast for the coming days had steadily increasing northeasterly winds from Sunday night thru the end of the forecast period on Wednesday.

NE winds was our worst case scenario, as we had to go NE.  In addition, the currents in the English Channel are very strong, 3 to 5 knots, and we had already encountered even stronger currents, contrary winds and very steep standing waves just getting to Honfleur.  After that encounter, I had vowed never again.

Never lasted only two days.

Dauntless in Honfleur
Dauntless in Honfleur

I have found that 15 knots of wind is the magic number.  Below that speed, no matter the direction, seas stay small and travel is relatively easy. Above that speed, seas start building and the direction and currents start making a big difference.

Well, my forecast was right on.  Should have been easy.

Sunday looked to be the best day, light NE winds, increasing to NE at 10 to 15 knots Monday, increasing to 25 to 35 knots Monday night through Tuesday night.

We were leaving Honfleur at 8:30, the time the bridge opened to let us out of the inner harbor.  Then one hour down the Seine we would be turning NE ward just as the currents also revered to run NE.  Our ETA to Vlissingen was 04:00 Tuesday morning.  Now this would mean the last 10 hours would be into strong winds.  Pierre-Jean and I talked about the plan and figured if it got bad, we would just pull into French or Belgium port before it got too bad. But how bad could it be?

Famous last words.

Because I had not yet moved the fuel vents, I was diligent about feeding from the windward tank, as Dauntless rolls a bit more to leeward.  Having left Waterford with full tanks, the port side tank was finally about 5 inches less than full and therefore showing up on the sight tube.  So, I decided to leave Honfleur running on the starboard tanks, to level the boat.

When we had arrived in Honfleur, two days previously, the Fuel Polisher which had been running the whole time while underway, indicated 10” of Hg, which meant it needed to be changed.  I also noticed a little water in the bottom of the bowl.   So I wrote in my log to change the FP and the port side Racor filters.

I am still mystified why I did not do this before the Sunday departure.

We must be waiting in front of the bridge for the 8:30 opening.  I had started the engine and turned on the fuel polisher for the starboard tank at 08:00, we would use the starboard side Racor, which was new.

At 08:15, I do a last minute check in the engine room and decide that I would now change the two filters, thinking better late than never, though I hated the thought of starting my day smell of diesel.

Changing the two filters took about 5 minutes, so with 10 minutes to spare, our lines are cast off and I’m backing out of the slip, with my hands smelling of fuel, even though I had washed them three times.

I must have been distracted.

As we back out, all of a sudden, the bow starts swinging quickly to the right, towards the bowsprit of the two sailboats docked perpendicular to Dauntless.  Thinking that it’s wind driven, I quickly give a burst of left full rudder in forward to push the bow to port.  That works.  OK I try backing straight again, same thing happens at which point the sailboat folks are getting concerned.   I straighten the boat again and as I go to look, Pierre-Jean yells that there is still a line tied to the end of the finger pier to our stern.  Well, that explains that. We get the line untied and I pull out finally with no drama.

No, in reality the drama was just beginning.

To be Continued

 

The Power of Persistence

Yes, while it certainly takes persistence to cross an ocean, I’m referring to a difference type of persistence, persistence as it relates to weather forecast skill.
Reading this article this morning from the April 17, 2015 edition of Science News, I thought it would illustrate the impact persistence has on a weather forecast.

Onshore hurricanes in a slump

Record-breaking nine years have elapsed since last Category 3 or stronger hurricane made landfall in the United States.

BY
12:36PM, APRIL 17, 2015

No major hurricanes have slammed into the coast of the United States since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. The gap in these hurricanes making landfall is the longest in recorded history and is incredibly rare, researchers report.

Many hurricanes in recent years have reached Category 3 or above while out to sea, but they’ve all fizzled into weaker storms before coming ashore. The landfall drought is probably a temporary run of good luck rather than a climate shift. The researchers estimate that there’s a 61 percent chance the drought will continue through this year.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/onshore-hurricanes-slump

I have promised to publish a post about weather and weather forecasting.  That post will be titled, Weather or Not, but this is not that.

This is more a little teaser, an appetizer.  The above quote was taken from the most recent on-line edition of Science News, an absolutely wonderful magazine that now comes out every other week, as the on-line portion has gotten bigger.

Having read SN for more than 20 years, I’ve always looked forward to what juicy bits it would contain each week.

I’ve quoted the above portion because it highlights something that I will talk about extensively in my post, the power of persistence.   So as the article above talks about how rare it is for the U.S. not to have a Cat 3, or greater, hurricane landfall; we have already gone 9 seasons without one.

These researchers still prognosticate that there is still an above even chance, 61%, that we will not have a landfall this upcoming season also.

I’m sure that’s predicated on the power of persistence.  So even though this is far out of the ordinary, (no landfall), persistence is still hard to beat when it comes to forecasting.

In my upcoming post, Weather or Not, I will discuss the impact of persistence on a forecast, how to evaluate the quality of a weather forecast, how a forecaster can be right 95% of the time; but still not make good forecasts! and most of all, how you, the cruiser, should or should not use said forecast.

Stay tuned.